![]() Not all of these assessments were mea culpas - ours emphatically wasn’t (more about that in a moment) - but they at least grappled with the reality of what the models had said. ![]() After Trump’s victory, the various academics and journalists who’d built models to estimate the election odds engaged in detailed self-assessments of how their forecasts had performed. ![]() While data geeks and traditional journalists each made their share of mistakes when assessing Trump’s chances during the campaign, their behavior since the election has been different. But in the part of the story that I know best, horse-race coverage, 1 the results of the learning process have been discouraging so far. And I don’t expect many of the answers to be obvious or easy. But for journalists, given the exceptional challenges that Trump poses to the press and the extraordinary moment he represents in American history, it’s also imperative to learn from our experiences in covering Trump to date.Īs editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, which takes a different and more data-driven perspective than many news organizations, I don’t claim to speak to every question about how to cover Trump. It’s tempting to use the inauguration as an excuse to finally close the chapter on the 2016 election and instead turn the page to the four years ahead. Davis, Kennedy Elliott, Amy Hughes, Ben Koski, Allison McCartney and Karen Workman.On Friday at noon, a Category 5 political cyclone that few journalists saw coming will deposit Donald Trump atop the Capitol Building, where he’ll be sworn in as the 45th president of the United States. David Goodman, Blake Hounshell, Shawn Hubler, Annie Karni, Maya King, Stephanie Lai, Lisa Lerer, Jonathan Martin, Patricia Mazzei, Alyce McFadden, Jennifer Medina, Azi Paybarah, Mitch Smith, Tracey Tully, Jazmine Ulloa, Neil Vigdor and Jonathan Weisman production by Andy Chen, Amanda Cordero, Alex Garces, Chris Kahley, Laura Kaltman, Andrew Rodriguez and Jessica White editing by Wilson Andrews, Kenan Davis, William P. Epstein, Nicholas Fandos, Lalena Fisher, Trip Gabriel, Katie Glueck, J. Bender, Sarah Borell, Sarah Cahalan, Emily Cochrane, Nick Corasaniti, Jill Cowan, Catie Edmondson, Reid J. Reporting by Grace Ashford, Maggie Astor, Michael C. Lee, Vivian Li, Rebecca Lieberman, Ilana Marcus, Alicia Parlapiano, Jaymin Patel, Marcus Payadue, Matt Ruby, Rachel Shorey, Charlie Smart, Umi Syam, Jaime Tanner, James Thomas, Urvashi Uberoy, Ege Uz, Isaac White and Christine Zhang. The Times’s election results pages are produced by Michael Andre, Aliza Aufrichtig, Kristen Bayrakdarian, Neil Berg, Matthew Bloch, Véronique Brossier, Irineo Cabreros, Sean Catangui, Andrew Chavez, Nate Cohn, Lindsey Rogers Cook, Alastair Coote, Annie Daniel, Saurabh Datar, Avery Dews, Asmaa Elkeurti, Tiffany Fehr, Andrew Fischer, Lazaro Gamio, Martín González Gómez, Will Houp, Jon Huang, Samuel Jacoby, Jason Kao, Josh Katz, Aaron Krolik, Jasmine C. 2020 comparison maps exclude places where third-party candidates won more than 5 percent of the vote. The Associated Press also provides estimates for the share of votes reported, which are shown for races for which The Times does not publish its own estimates. ![]() These are only estimates, and they may not be informed by reports from election officials. The Times estimates the share of votes reported and the number of remaining votes, based on historic turnout data and reporting from results providers. Source: Election results and race calls are from The Associated Press. Williams as too conservative for the district. Francis Conole, the Democratic hopeful, has painted Mr. Court of Appeals clerk.īrandon Williams hopes to keep this seat in Republican hands and succeed John Katko, a moderate who outperformed his party in 20. He faces Josh Riley, a Democrat, lawyer and former U.S. Marc Molinaro, a Republican county executive who lost campaigns for governor in 2018 and a special House election in August, is taking another shot at the House. He faces Colin Schmitt, a Republican state assemblyman. Representative Pat Ryan, a Democrat who scored an upset victory in an August special election in the 19th District, in part by focusing on abortion access, is running in a neighboring district. Sean Patrick Maloney, who is in charge of protecting the House Democrats’ majority, is unexpectedly locked in a close battle in his own Hudson Valley district against Mike Lawler, a Republican assemblyman who has benefited from his party’s financial backing. They appear to be the first two openly gay House candidates to compete in a general election. 6 rally, for the seat Tom Suozzi vacated. Robert Zimmerman, a business owner and Democratic activist, faces George Santos, a Republican who attended the Jan.
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